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    發(fā)布日期: 2021-06-06
  • 語言: 其他
  • 標(biāo)簽: MATLAB??

資源簡介

對含儲(chǔ)能和風(fēng)電的電力系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了可靠性評估,利用序貫蒙特卡洛法,把風(fēng)儲(chǔ)系統(tǒng)接入IEEE-RBTS系統(tǒng)來仿真,探討了風(fēng)電場、儲(chǔ)能系統(tǒng)、儲(chǔ)能容量和儲(chǔ)能最大充放電功率對系統(tǒng)可靠性的具體影響,可以運(yùn)行。

資源截圖

代碼片段和文件信息

clear;
clc;
tic

year=2
%模擬的年限

for?l=1:year;
????
????%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%??第一步:數(shù)據(jù)導(dǎo)入與預(yù)處理??%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
????
????SW0=load(‘windspeed.txt‘);????%載入原始風(fēng)速數(shù)據(jù)
????SW0=SW0‘;?????????????????????%將風(fēng)速數(shù)據(jù)從橫列轉(zhuǎn)置成豎列
????SW0=SW0/10*36;????????????????%原始數(shù)據(jù)的風(fēng)速單位為m/s,這里轉(zhuǎn)化為km/h
????N=size(SW02);????????????????%把SW0的列數(shù)賦值給N
????mu=mean(SW0);?????????????????%求SW0的平均值
????sigma=var(SW0);
????sigma=sigma^0.5;??????????????%求SW0的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差
????y=(SW0-mu)./sigma;????????????%數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理
????
????N1=8736;??????????????????????%N1為模擬的小時(shí)數(shù)
????WTGnum=25;????????????????????%WTGnum為風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)數(shù)量
????
????%%%%%%%%%%%%%%??第二步:根據(jù)AIC準(zhǔn)則確定ARMA模型的階數(shù)??%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
????
????for?n=2:7;
????????m=armax(y‘[nn-1]);
????????fai=-m.a;
????????theta=m.c;????????????????%把a(bǔ)rmax函數(shù)得到的參數(shù),取出來
????????
????????for?i=1:n;
????????????y1(i)=y(i);
????????end
????????
????????Noise=m.NoiseVariance^0.5;
????????e=normrnd(0Noise1N);
????????for?t=n+1:1:N;
????????????y1(t)=0;
????????????for?j=2:n+1;
????????????????y1(t)=y1(t)+fai(j)*y1(t-(j-1));
????????????end
????????????for?k=1:n;
????????????????y1(t)=y1(t)+theta(k)*e(t-(k-1));
????????????end
????????end??????????????????????????%y1(t)為預(yù)測值
????????
????????s(n)=0;
????????for?i1=1:N;
????????????residual=y1(i1)-y(i1);
????????????s(n)=s(n)+residual^2;????%求取殘差平方和
????????end
????????
????????AIC(n)=N*log(s(n))+2*n-1;????%求AIC
????end
????
????arma=AIC(12:7);?????????????????%n=2-7時(shí),各AIC的值
????[AICn1]=min(arma);
????n1=n1+1;?????????????????????????%n1為得到的ARMA模型的階數(shù)
????
????%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%??第三步:用ARMA模型預(yù)測風(fēng)速并確定風(fēng)速分布??%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
????
????m=armax(y‘[n1n1-1]);
????fai=-m.a;
????theta=m.c;
????
????for?i=1:n1;
????????y2(i)=y(i);
????end
????
????Noise=m.NoiseVariance^0.5;
????e=normrnd(0Noise18736);
????for?t=n1+1:1:8736;
????????y2(t)=0;
????????for?j=2:n1+1;
????????????y2(t)=y2(t)+fai(j)*y2(t-(j-1));
????????end
????????for?k=1:n1;
????????????y2(t)=y2(t)+theta(k)*e(t-(k-1));
????????end
????end?????????????????%y1(t)為預(yù)測值
????y2;
????SW=y2.*sigma+mu;
????
????%?????figure(2)
????%?????subplot(121);
????%?????hist(SW0100);
????%?????xlabel(‘風(fēng)速‘);ylabel(‘頻數(shù)‘);title(‘原始風(fēng)速的分布‘);
????%?????subplot(122);
????%?????hist(SW100);
????%?????xlabel(‘風(fēng)速‘);ylabel(‘頻數(shù)‘);title(‘預(yù)測風(fēng)速的分布‘);
????
????
????%得到8736個(gè)小時(shí)的預(yù)測風(fēng)速:SW?1*8736
????
????
????
????%%%%%%%??第四步:風(fēng)電場的轉(zhuǎn)移過程,確定其一年中三種狀態(tài)分別存在的時(shí)長%%%%%%%
???
????%風(fēng)電機(jī)組的三狀態(tài)模型
????lambdaRD=5.84;lambdaRF=7.96;lambdaDR=48.3;lambdaFR=58.4;lambdaDF=0;lambdaFD=0;????%風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)的3個(gè)狀態(tài)的轉(zhuǎn)移率
????T=[1?1?1;lambdaRD?-lambdaDR-lambdaDF?lambdaFD;lambdaRF?lambdaDF?-lambdaFR-lambdaFD];
????T=inv(T);
????probWTG=T*[1;0;0];????????????%風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)分別處于運(yùn)行、降額以及停運(yùn)狀態(tài)的概率
????TR=8736/(lambdaRD+lambdaRF);TD=8736/(lambdaDR+lambdaDF);TF=8736/(lambdaFD+lambdaFR);
????
????
????R1=rand(WTGnum1000);?????????%R1確定風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)所處的狀態(tài)
????R2=rand(WTGnum1000);?????????%R2確定該狀態(tài)所持續(xù)的時(shí)間
????D=zeros(WTGnum1000);?????????%D記錄每個(gè)狀態(tài)所處的時(shí)間
????time=zeros(WTGnu

?屬性????????????大小?????日期????時(shí)間???名稱
-----------?---------??----------?-----??----

?????文件????????251??2017-04-09?20:59??windspeed.txt

?????文件??????69317??2013-01-19?19:43??load.txt

?????文件??????11176??2017-04-17?17:03??wind.m

-----------?---------??----------?-----??----

????????????????80744????????????????????3


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